A strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane late Tuesday as it continues its frenzied march west blowing into the Caribbean with its sights set on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center said.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory, the center of Ernesto was located about 20 miles east of St. Thomas and 90 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as it moves west-northwest at 18 mph.
A gust of 65 mph was recorded Tuesday morning on St. Barthelemy as the system stretched out across the Leewards with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 115 miles. But its center avoided landfall as it moved near the Caribbean’s northeastern outer islands, passing 10 miles north of the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe and south of Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda.
Officials on Guadeloupe closed several main roads, urged people to stay indoors and warned that the quality of potable water would be affected for several days. Meanwhile, the storm downed trees in Antigua and knocked out power to most of the island.
A hurricane watch was initiated at 11 a.m. Tuesday for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands and the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra. A tropical storm warning remained in place as of 5 p.m. Tuesday for those same locations as well as Puerto Rico itself.
The system that had been speeding across the Atlantic as a tropical wave at nearly 30 mph over the week is forecast to slow down in the next day.
“On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday,” said NHC meteorologist Brad Reinhart in a Tuesday update. “Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night.”
Its intensity increased from 30 mph sustained winds on Monday as it became the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season by the afternoon. It gathered more steam going from 40 to 60 mph sustained winds from morning into early Tuesday afternoon.
“Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra during the next several hours,” Reinhart said. “Hurricane conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra tonight.”
Tropical Storm Ernesto becomes the fifth named storm of the 2024 season.
Ernesto is forecasted to move over the Leeward Islands overnight before nearing Puerto Rico tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/bN7cCmeocg
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) August 12, 2024
It would become the third hurricane of the season after Beryl and Debby.
The long-range forecast has Ernesto taking a sharp turn to the north and up into the Atlantic away from any threat to Florida, but it could threaten Bermuda as a strong Category 2 hurricane by the weekend with 110 mph sustained winds and 130 mph gusts.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the only impact on the state’s east coast is expected to be heavy swells that could cause dangerous surf conditions and rip currents later in the week.
For the Caribbean, the system is expected to bring from 4 to 6 inches of rain over portions of the Leeward Islands and 6-8 inches in southeastern Puerto Rico, but could hit some areas with as much as 10 inches. Lower totals are expected on northwestern Puerto Rico, the Windward Islands and the Dominican Republic on eastern Hispaniola.
Storm surge could be as high as 3 feet on parts of the eastern coast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands with large and destructive waves as high as 10 feet.
Preparations in Puerto Rico included closed schools, opened shelters and dozens of the U.S. territory’s endangered parrots moved into hurricane-proof rooms.
Heavy rains began pelting Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and strong winds churned the ocean into a milky turquoise as people rushed to finish securing homes and businesses.
“I’m hoping it will go away quickly,” said José Rodríguez, 36, as he climbed on the roof of his uncle’s wooden shack in the Afro-Caribbean community of Piñones on Puerto Rico’s north coast to secure the business famous for its fried street food.
“We are going to have a lot of rain,” Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi said as he urged people to be indoors by early Tuesday evening.
He activated the National Guard as crews across the island visited flood-prone areas and older residents as part of last-minute preparations. Meanwhile, Department of Natural Resources officials who work at breeding centers for theisland’s only remaining native parrot, the Puerto Rico Amazon, moved them indoors.
Ernesto Rodríguez with the National Weather Service warned that the storm’s trajectory could change as it approaches Puerto Rico.
“We should not lower our guard,” he said.
As intermittent rain pelted Puerto Rico’s northeast, residents in Piñones tried to squeeze in a couple more hours of work.
María Abreu, 25, prepared fried pastries stuffed with shrimp, crab, chicken and even iguana meat as she waited for customers.
“They always come. They buy them in case the power goes out,” she said.
Down the road, Juan Pizarro, 65, picked nearly 100 coconuts from palm trees swaying in the strong breeze. He had already secured his house.
“I’m ready for anything,” he said.
Puerto Rico has six reservoirs that already were overflowing before the storm.
Officials in Puerto Rico warned of widespread power outages given the crumbling electric grid, which crews are still repairing after Hurricane Maria razed it in September 2017 as a Category 4 storm.
Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, a private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico, urged people to report blackouts: “Puerto Rico’s electrical system is not sufficiently modernized to detect power outages.”
Outages also were a concern in the neighboring U.S. Virgin Islands for similar reasons, with blackouts reported on St. Thomas and St. John on Monday.
“Don’t sleep on this,” said U.S. Virgin Islands Gov. Albert Bryan Jr., whose administration announced early Tuesday that it was closing all schools.
The update to the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for 17-24 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes & 4-7 major hurricanes.https://t.co/FywZw6K8Ms#HurricaneOutlook @NWS pic.twitter.com/qaeDUvVs1S
— NOAA (@NOAA) August 8, 2024
Tropical storm threats are likely to pick up with the height of hurricane season running from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its forecast this week for the season now calling for an extremely active one with 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 will be hurricanes. Of those, 4-7 would become major hurricanes.
The official hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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